I am playing the under in this game as I just think the match up is right for it. Neither team has a dual offense that can pass and run and both run the ball more because of that. In close games they will run the ball even more (over 60% of the time) and that's what we are going to have on our hands here tonight. I would lean towards NC State, but you just can't fade O'Leary in a bowl game. I think UCF's offense is just not very good and it all starts up front where they ranked 111th in adjusted line yards. I think they will have issues with an athletic NC State defensive line which just got finished holding UNC's potent offense to 7 points and 207 total yards.
On the other side of the ball you have NC State coming off 35 and 42 point efforts but against sub par defenses. UCF is a dual threat defense they can stop both the run and pass and are ranked 4th in yards per play. NC State has had 4 games against top 30 defensive yards per play units and have averaged 14 points. They also won't have as much luck in the red zone against Central Florida who is holding opponents to 44% TD percentage so I expect a lot of field goals. On the flip side UCF is one of the worst offenses in the red zone with 50% TD percentage and NC State's defensive unit holding opponents to 58%, but take out Georgia Tech and Florida State and they are holding opponents to 44%. Expect both teams to move the ball at times, but I don't expect a lot of TD's in this game. Central Florida has the neutral field advantage having to travel less than 100 miles compared to NC State at 601 but the reverse line movement on the spread hints to me this is going to be a close game and a low scoring one at that.
